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Case file · Part 1 · Day 1

Every sale makes you poorer

The story is made up. Everything on this page is real. Here's the math behind Part 1 and where each fact comes from.

Part 1 drops Monday, Oct 19 at 7 PM Central

Problem 1: the pot

There's no bank behind $LAST. All 100,000 coins trade against one shared pot of $10 million. It works like a real crypto trading pool: coins in the pot times dollars in the pot always equals the same number (people write it as x × y = k).

So every coin sold into the pot pushes the price down for everyone still holding. Player 37 got $99,010, not $100,000, because his own sale moved the price on the way out.

Players soldPotYour bag
0$10,000,000$100,000
1$9,900,990$98,030
2$9,803,922$96,117
5$9,523,810$90,703
12 (lunch)$8,928,571$79,719
50$6,666,667$44,444

Each player holds 1,000 coins. The pot starts at 100,000 coins and $10,000,000. Every sale adds 1,000 coins to the pot.

  1. RareSkills: how price impact works in a constant product pool (Uniswap V2)

Problem 2: the math is off

$20,000,000

100 players times $100,000 is $10 million. The prize wallet holds $30 million. Nobody has said where the other $20 million came from, or who's paying for it.

Every crypto wallet is public

On Ethereum and most other blockchains, anyone can look up any wallet's balance and every transaction it has ever made. Sites called block explorers show it in seconds, no login needed. That's why every player can watch the prize wallet, and why everyone can see exactly who sells.

  1. Etherscan, the most-used Ethereum block explorer

It happened before

2018 · Fomo3D
About $3 million

Fomo3D was a real game on Ethereum. Every time someone bought in, the pot grew and a countdown timer got more time. When the timer hit zero, the last person to buy in won the pot.

Round one ended on August 22, 2018. One player walked away with 10,469 ETH, worth about $2.8 to $3 million at the time. Reports say they won by flooding the network with expensive transactions so nobody else could buy in during the final seconds.

  1. The Next Web, Aug 24, 2018: Ethereum "exit scam" ends, paying $2.8M to an anonymous winner
  2. Vice, Aug 24, 2018 (German): a player wins $3 million in a blockchain lottery
Rule 1
Everyone who sells gets paid by everyone who holds.

Open questions

  • Who's paying the other $20 million?
  • Who's dumping on purpose, and how does Maya know?
  • How does the host know what you're wearing?

The vote

Do you trust Maya, or play this alone?

Comment TRUST or SOLO under Part 1. Catch up on the whole story